Laszlo Birinyi says the U.S. stocks rally that began in March 2009 may produce bigger gains than the technology boom of the 1990s, if history is a guide.
Laszlo Birinyi says the U.S. stocks rally that began in March 2009 may produce bigger gains than the technology boom of the 1990s, if history is a guide.
Birinyi, who was one of the first money managers to advise buying American equities as they bottomed almost 22 months ago, said yesterday that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may increase to 2,854 on Sept. 4, 2013, based on the average size of advances. That requires a 322 percent surge from the low of 676.53 in March 2009, beating the 302 percent rally during the bull market of October 1990 to July 1998.
Given the length of the advances that began in 1962, 1982, 1990 and 2002, the current rally should continue another 32 months, he said, citing the average duration. Historical precedent shows gains are largest in the first and last quarters of bull markets, according to research conducted by Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc. The final quarter may start in July 2012 and generate gains of 52 percent, Birinyi said in yesterday’s research report.
Source:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/birinyi-says-s-p-500-may-reach-2-854-by-september-2013-if-history-is-guide.html?nstrack=sid:4863407|met:300|cat:0|order:2
Birinyi, who was one of the first money managers to advise buying American equities as they bottomed almost 22 months ago, said yesterday that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may increase to 2,854 on Sept. 4, 2013, based on the average size of advances. That requires a 322 percent surge from the low of 676.53 in March 2009, beating the 302 percent rally during the bull market of October 1990 to July 1998.
Given the length of the advances that began in 1962, 1982, 1990 and 2002, the current rally should continue another 32 months, he said, citing the average duration. Historical precedent shows gains are largest in the first and last quarters of bull markets, according to research conducted by Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc. The final quarter may start in July 2012 and generate gains of 52 percent, Birinyi said in yesterday’s research report.
Source:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/birinyi-says-s-p-500-may-reach-2-854-by-september-2013-if-history-is-guide.html?nstrack=sid:4863407|met:300|cat:0|order:2
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